How Changing College Majors Are Reshaping the Future Workforce
By Gad Levanon and Tomer Stern
The college majors that undergraduates have declared in recent years are a leading indicator of where tomorrow’s talent will flow. When those preferences shift, the effect ripples through graduate-school pipelines, corporate recruiting, and ultimately the occupational structure of the economy. To isolate that effect, we ran a controlled thought-experiment: if the only change that occurred between 2018 and 2023 was in students’ majors, how would the mix of occupations shift?
Using American Community Survey micro-data, we compared the major distribution of recent graduates in 2018 and 2023 and applied a fixed 2023 major-to-occupation cross-walk—built from employed 30- to 32-year-olds—to each cohort. Everything else (demographic composition, population size) was held constant. The result is two hypothetical workforces: one reflecting the 2018 major mix and one reflecting 2023. The gap between them pinpoints where talent pipelines are expanding or shrinking solely due to student choice.
One key theme emerges: students are pivoting into majors aligned to high paying careers. Many are flooding into technology, engineering, and advanced health sciences, even as they retreat from less lucrative majors like education, social work, and journalism – as well as the humanities more broadly. On some level, this reflects understandable concerns about employability in an increasingly precarious job market for new grads and ever-rising tuition costs. At the same time, some of the majors in decline portend future shortages in teaching, caregiving, and civic leadership, and may weaken society’s ability to navigate human challenges in an AI-driven world.
These changes will have significant implications for the supply of workers by occupation. Here are some notable examples:
The surge in computer-science enrollment—up 52 percent since 2018—translates into roughly one-fifth more software developers and cybersecurity analysts in the coming pipeline.
Engineering talent is broadening, not just deepening. Double-digit increases in biomedical, aerospace, industrial and mechanical majors signal a robust stream of skills for advanced-manufacturing, climate-tech and space-systems roles.
Health-care projections are mixed. For example, while nurse-anesthetist and nurse-practitioner supply is set to expand by 15–22 percent, the ranks of occupational and physical therapists are on course to fall about 10 percent.
Teacher preparation is moving the wrong way. A continued slide in education and humanities majors implies a 7–9 percent drop in new K-12 and special-education teachers, tightening shortages that districts already struggle to fill.
Humanities and journalism decline thin the creative pipeline: future editors, writers and reporters could shrink by up to one-fifth.
Finally, social-service talent contracts, pointing to a 4 percent dip in child- and family-social-worker supply—small in percentage terms, but critical given the shortages in these occupations.
The Rise of Tech and Health Majors
To quantify the change in major preferences, using American Community Survey micro-data, we compared the major distribution of college graduates aged 22-24 in 2018 and 2023, and computed the percent change in the share of each major.
Two groups of college majors have seen especially large increases in popularity over the past five years: technology and health-related fields. These shifts reflect how today’s students are responding to some of the most powerful forces shaping the U.S. economy and society — from the rise of artificial intelligence and data science to the aging of the population and the lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Technology majors, particularly computer and information sciences, have surged. This category saw the largest increase in share among all major groups, growing by 42% from 2018 to 2023. Within that, computer science alone rose by an impressive 52%, underscoring the economy-wide shift toward digital skills and the growing appeal of careers in tech, data, and AI. Engineering also saw a notable uptick, driven by demand for applied technical skills across industries.
Health-related majors expanded significantly as well. Nursing grew by 32%, public health by 29%, and biomedical engineering by a striking 48%. General medical and health services majors increased by 19%. These trends reflect not only the shock of the pandemic but also long-standing demographic shifts — particularly the aging of the baby boomer generation and the growing demand for health care services.
Some of the most dramatic growth occurred in biology and mental health–adjacent fields. Neuroscience majors nearly doubled (+85%), while microbiology (+69%) and biochemical sciences (+63%) also saw exceptional gains. These increases likely stem from a mix of heightened awareness of infectious diseases, rising concern over mental health, and rapid advances in biomedical research and innovation. For many students, these majors represent a blend of cutting-edge science and meaningful societal impact.
Together, these shifts show how student interests are increasingly aligned with future-facing sectors of the economy — and how the classroom is already adapting to a changing world.
The Decline of Humanities, Pure Sciences, and Service Fields
While technology and health majors have surged, other areas of study have seen sharp declines — especially in the liberal arts, some hard sciences, and traditional service professions.
Liberal arts and humanities majors have experienced some of the most significant drops. From 2018 to 2023, the number of students majoring in liberal arts and humanities fell by nearly 30 percent. Area, ethnic, and civilization studies declined by 39 percent, while English language and literature dropped by 15 percent and foreign languages by 16 percent. These fields, once considered the intellectual foundation of a college education, are increasingly seen as disconnected from clear career outcomes.
The decline in humanities enrollment reflects more than changing student preferences—it raises questions about the future role of these disciplines. Fields like history, literature, and philosophy have long developed critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and cultural understanding—skills that contribute to both personal growth and democratic life. As artificial intelligence automates more technical tasks, human skills like creativity, empathy, and judgment may become more valuable, not less. These are often cultivated through the humanities. While the shift toward career-focused education is understandable, maintaining space for the humanities could help ensure society remains thoughtful, adaptable, and equipped to meet the challenges of an AI-driven world.
The hard sciences have not been immune to this trend. Majors in chemistry and mathematics declined by 19 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Although these fields are part of the broader STEM category, they are more academically oriented and less directly tied to the booming tech and health sectors that dominate today’s labor market. Many students may be opting instead for applied disciplines like computer science, data science, or biomedical engineering, which offer more immediate and lucrative job prospects.
The Decline of Education Majors
Majors in education are also on the decline. Education administration and teaching saw an 8.8 percent drop during this period — a relatively modest decline compared to other fields, but still notable given the critical need for educators across the country. The projected decline in teacher supply is partly driven by a decrease in women choosing education-related majors. This trend coincides with a shift towards greater gender parity in traditionally male-dominated fields like management, finance and computer science.
The projected decrease in the population aged 5-19 could lead to slower growth in teacher employment, potentially discouraging students from pursuing teaching careers. In addition, teaching is not attractive to workers who want to work from home.
Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic brought intense pressures on teachers, including burnout, political scrutiny, and staffing shortages. These factors may have made the profession less appealing, even to students motivated by a desire to make a difference.
Even some traditionally career-oriented majors have seen steep declines. Social work dropped by 18 percent, journalism by 31 percent, and pre-law and legal studies by 32 percent. Nutrition sciences fell by 39 percent, and treatment therapy professions declined by 41 percent.
Implication for labor supply by occupation
Shifts in students’ major choices are quietly reshaping the future occupational landscape. By linking each major to the jobs graduates typically enter—using a consistent 2023-based major-to-occupation crosswalk—we can translate changes in educational preferences into projected changes in the workforce. We apply this mapping to the distribution of majors among recent college graduates in both 2018 and 2023, generating two snapshots of what the future labor market might look like if educational trends alone were driving change. This approach doesn’t aim to forecast job openings or total employment. Instead, it isolates how evolving academic interests could tilt the occupational mix, revealing which types of jobs are gaining or losing ground as a result.
The computer and tech sector stands out as the biggest winner. Occupations like Information Security Analysts (+24.4%), Software Developers (+20.5%), and Computer Hardware Engineers (+36.6%) are projected to grow substantially as more students gravitate toward computer science and data-related majors.
Engineering occupations are also benefiting from this trend. Biomedical, aerospace, and industrial engineering roles are all expected to see double-digit growth due to sustained interest in engineering degrees. Even traditionally stable fields like mechanical engineering are seeing positive momentum, reflecting the broad appeal of engineering as a career path.
In the healthcare sector, there’s a sharp divide. Advanced practice roles such as Nurse Anesthetists (+21.9%), Nurse Practitioners (+15.2%), and Podiatrists (+14.6%) are growing strongly, likely due to increasing enrollments in health sciences and pre-med programs. The increase in psychology and neuroscience majors is likely to increase the supply of psychologists.
At the same time, other critical health roles like Occupational Therapists (−8.7%), Physical Therapists (−9.8%), and Dieticians and Nutritionists (−19.8%) are on the decline.
The outlook is more troubling in the social services and education fields. Social work occupations are projected to shrink, with declines for Child and Family Social Workers (−3.6%) and Social Workers overall (−4.4%). Education faces even steeper challenges: fewer students are choosing teaching majors, leading to projected declines in Elementary and Middle School Teachers (−6.7%), Secondary School Teachers (−7.4%), and especially Special Education Teachers (−9.4%). These are alarming figures in light of nationwide teacher shortages.
Design-oriented roles such as Commercial and Industrial Designers (+13.9%) and Graphic Designers (+5.1%) are seeing modest growth, suggesting that creative fields with strong digital components are holding their own. In contrast, communications and media careers are in retreat. Editors (−5.6%), Writers and Authors (−7.6%), and Public Relations Specialists (−10.9%) are all projected to decline. The most dramatic drops are in journalism and broadcasting: News Analysts and Reporters (−20.1%) and Broadcast Announcers (−11.2%) face sharp declines, mirroring the broader contraction in traditional media industries.
In short, the shifting interests of college students are likely to amplify existing trends in the labor market—fueling growth in tech and engineering, straining the supply of educators and social workers, and accelerating the decline of legacy media roles. Understanding these dynamics is essential for workforce planning, higher education strategy, and career guidance.
Conclusion
The changing distribution of college majors reflects students’ ability to respond thoughtfully to evolving labor market demands. Rising interest in fields like computer science, engineering, health sciences, and biomedical research shows that today’s students are making strategic choices aligned with areas of strong economic growth and societal need.
At the same time, the sharp declines in humanities, education, social work, and certain service professions raise important concerns. As fewer students prepare for careers in teaching, caregiving, and civic leadership, critical sectors risk facing future shortages. Moreover, the erosion of the humanities — disciplines that foster creativity, critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and cultural understanding — could leave society less equipped to navigate the human dimensions of an increasingly automated, AI-driven world.
Recognizing both the strengths and vulnerabilities in these educational trends will be crucial. Supporting strategic, career-focused education while also maintaining robust pipelines into essential human-centered professions will help ensure that future labor market needs are met — not just in terms of technical skill, but in terms of social resilience, innovation, and democratic vitality.
Appendix A. Methodology
Data and sample. We use the public‐use microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) one-year files for 2018 and 2023. The universe is U.S.-born adults who have completed at least a bachelor’s degree. Two age bands anchor the analysis: 22-24-year-olds represent the pipeline of recent graduates whose major choices we track, while 30-32-year-olds serve as an early-career reference group for establishing how majors map into jobs.
Building the major-to-occupation cross-walk. Using the 2023 ACS data for employed graduates aged 30-32, we compute, for every undergraduate major, the share of holders working in each Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code. See example in the chart below. The resulting 2023 matrix captures the “typical” occupational outcomes of each field of study and is locked in as our cross-walk.
Projecting occupational mixes. We start with the actual mix of undergraduate majors for 22- to 24-year-olds in 2018 and again in 2023. Next, we apply a fixed 2023 major-to-occupation cross-walk—built from employed 30- to 32-year-olds—to each major mix. This effectively asks:
If the 2018 cohort of 22- to 24-year-olds followed today’s (2023) pathways from major to job, what would their occupational distribution look like when they themselves reach age 30-32?
If the 2023 cohort followed those same pathways, what would their age-30-32 distribution look like?
Because the cross-walk is held constant, the only difference between the two counterfactual workforces is the shift in student major preferences. Labor-market demand, demographics, and macro conditions are frozen in place, isolating the impact of changing majors alone.
Quantifying change. For every SOC occupation we compute the projected share derived from the 2018 majors and the share derived from the 2023 majors. We report both the percentage-point difference and the percentage change.